Cocaine trafficking

Cocaine trafficking

Cocaine manufacture and trafficking have had a serious impact in the Western hemisphere. Cocaine use is relatively concentrated in the Americas, Europe and Oceania, and practically all of the world’s cocaine is produced in three countries in South America.

The vast bulk of the flow proceeds from the Andean region to North America (often via Central America) and Europe (often via West Africa) though an increasing share is directed to the Southern Cone of South America. Consumption of cocaine in the United States has been in long-term decline since the 1980s and has dramatically dropped off since 2006. This is likely due to enforcement efforts in Latin America, but these efforts have increased competition and violence between trafficking groups. Almost all cocaine production was directed north, to the US market, but US demand has been declining since the 1980s, and recently fell precipitously. At the same time, cocaine demand in Europe began to grow, and has increased rapidly in the twenty-first century.

In 2013 there are indications that overall global availability of cocaine has fallen. The estimated net area under coca bush cultivation as of 31 December 2012 was the lowest since the beginning of available estimates in 1990: 133,700 hectares, a decline of 14 per cent from the estimate for 2011. As a result, the estimated global production of cocaine has also declined. In Colombia, the potential production of pure cocaine was estimated at 309 tons, the lowest level since 1996.

South America, long the source of the world’s cocaine supply, has seen an increase in terms of consumption of cocaine (including crack). In 2012 number of cocaine users in South America was estimated at almost 2 millionin the period 2004-2005 and 3.35 million in 2012. A significant component of cocaine use in South America is the smoking of various forms of cocaine, including crack aswell as other crude forms of cocaine base.

Brazil contains approximately one half of the population of  South America; it is a country that is vulnerable to both cocaine trafficking, due to its geography (which makes it a convenient staging area for cocaine trafficked to Europe), as well as to cocaine consumption, due to its large urban population.

In world level, cocaine use remained stable over 2012, with 14 million-21 million estimated past-year users globally (0.4 per cent annual prevalence). Cocaine use remained high in North and South America (1.8 per cent and 1.2 per cent annual prevalence rates, respectively), Oceania (1.5 per cent) and Western and Central Europe (1 per cent).

One such possible destination could be Oceania, where the market has expanded in recent years and where prices are higher than in Western and Central Europe. Cocaine seizures in Oceania reached a record of 1.9 tons in 2010, and remained high in 2012, at 1.6 tons

From South America to North America

The ways cocaine is moved from South America to North America have varied over time, partly in response to enforcement efforts and partly due to changes in the groups doing the trafficking. Today, cocaine is typically transported from Colombia to Mexico or Central America by sea (usually by Colombians) and then onwards by land to the United States and Canada (usually by Mexicans). The US authorities estimate that close to 90% of the cocaine entering the country crosses the US/ Mexico land border, and some 70% of the cocaine leaves Colombia via the Pacific, 20% via the Atlantic, and 10% via the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela and the Caribbean.

Following the dismantling of the Medellin and Cali cartels in the early 1990s, the Colombian organized crime groups got smaller and violence declined. At the same time, Mexican groups grew in size and strength, and today are responsible for most of the violence in Mexico.

Some 196 tons of cocaine are needed to satisfy US demand, a flow valued at US$38 billion in 2008, but this money is not evenly distributed. The coca farmers in the three Andean countries earned only about US$1.1 billion that year. The amounts generated from processing and trafficking activities within the Andean countries for cocaine destined to be shipped towards North America amounted to around US$400 million. The total gross profits accruing to those importing cocaine to Mexico can be estimated in 2010 at around US$2.4 billion (excluding costs of shipping), and the Mexican cartels reaped US$2.9 billion that year moving the cocaine across the border into the USA. The largest profits, however, are generated within the USA: US$29.5 billion between the US wholesale level and US consumers. Out of these gross profits, the bulk is made between the mid-level dealers and the consumers, accounting for more than US$24 billion or 70% of the total size of the US cocaine market.

From the Andean region to Europe

The number of cocaine users in Europe has doubled over the last decade, from 2 million in 1998 to 4.1million in 2007/2008 and 3.5 in 2012/2013. More than 14.5 million Europeans (15- to 64-year-olds) are reported to have used cocaine at least once in their life The overall level of cocaine use is still lower than in North America, but individual European countries, notably Spain and the United Kingdom, now have higher annual prevalence rates than the USA – they have have a longestablishe  cocaine problem, while others (including France and Italy) have seen a rapid increase in use or seizures of the drug until recent years. In 2011, the largest quantities of cocaine seized were reported in Spain, France, the Netherlands and Belgium. Other countries, mainly in eastern and northern Europe (including Latvia, Lithuania and Finland), report very low figures for both cocaine use and seizures. Aside from Latin America, countries in Eastern Europe exclusively cited European countries as transit countries for cocaine reaching their territory in 2010-2012. It is likely that the Baltic region serves as an entry point for cocaine entering the Russian Federation. Limited quantities of cocaine may also reach Central and EasternEurope from the south, via countries in Eastern and SouthEastern Europe, including countries traditionally associated with the Balkan route for heroin entering Europe.

The European cocaine market grew in value from US$14 billion in 1998 to US$34 billion in 2008, about the same size as the US market. Preliminary data suggest the rapid growth of the European cocaine market is beginning to level off, however. Most of the trafficking of cocaine to Europe is by sea. Most cocaine shipments to Europe are destined for one of two regional hubs: Spain and Portugal in the south and the Netherlands and Belgium in the north. Colombia remains the main source of the cocaine found in Europe, but direct shipments from Peru and the Plurinational State of Bolivia are far more common than in the US market. The routes taken to arrive in Europe have changed in recent years. Between 2004 and 2007, at least two distinct trans-shipment hubs emerged in West Africa: one centred on Guinea-Bissau and Guinea, and one centred in the Bight of Benin which spans from Ghana to Nigeria. Political turmoil in the northern hub and successful interdiction elsewhere appear to have dampened this transit route for the time being, although it could quickly re-emerge. The Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela has also emerged as a key transit country for shipments to Europe, particularly for large maritime shipments. In the end, about 124 tons of cocaine are distributed in Europe, worth some US$34 billion – data from 2010. It appears that less than 1% of the value of cocaine sales in Europe goes to the Andean coca farmers, and another 1% goes to traffickers within the Andean region. The international traffickers who ship the cocaine from the Andean region to the main entry points (notably Spain) obtain 25% of the final sales value. A further 17% is generated in shipping the cocaine from the entry points to the wholesalers in the final destination countries across Europe. The largest income is generated in the destination countries, between the wholesaler and the consumer, generating more than 56% of the total. As there are far more dealers at the national level, however, the per capita income of the dealers at the national level in Europe is lower than among the smaller group of internationally operating cocaine dealers.