Heroin trafficking

Heroin trafficking

The origin of most of the world’s heroin is concentrated in a handful of provinces in embattled Afghanistan. Аround 90% of the global heroin supply comes from opium poppy cultivated in Afghanistan, and the majority of this is consumed in Europe, the Russian Federation and countries on route to these destinations. In 2013 there is evidence that Afghan heroin is increasingly reaching new markets, such as Oceania and South-East Asia.

The global area under illicit opium poppy cultivation in 2013 was 296,720 hectares (ha), the highest level since 1998 when estimates became available. An increase in cultivation was seen in both Afghanistan and Myanmar. The main increase was observed in Afghanistan, where the area of opium poppy cultivation increased 36 per cent, from 154,000 ha in 2012 to 209,000 ha in 2013.

The potential production of opium in 2013 is estimated at 6,883 tons, which is a return to the levels observed in 2011 and 2008. The opium production in Afghanistan accounts for 80 per cent of the global opium production (5,500 tons). The potential production of heroin (of unknown purity) has also increased to 560 tons, comparable to 2008 estimates of 600 tons

In 2013 use of opioids, mainly heroin, is estimated as 0.4 per cent of the population aged 15-64.

In some of the countries most affected by the financialcrisis, demand for heroin declined, as users shifted to cheaper drugs. For example, between 2008 and 2009 inMilan, Italy, decreases in cocaine and heroin, which armore expensive, were observed, but increases in methamphetamine and cannabis, which are less expensive drugs,were noted. In Romania, among people who inject drugs, a shift was observed, with 97 per cent interviewed in 2009reporting heroin as the main drug of injection and in 2012, most respondents (49.4 per cent) reportedly injecting AT(mostly synthetic cathinones) and only 38.1 per centinjecting heroin. In Greece, increased injection of a cheap new stimulant-type drug called “sisa”, has been reported.“Sisa” can be made in a kitchen from ephedrine, hydrochloric acid, ethanol and car battery fluid. Widespreadpolydrug use also facilitated those shifts.

In comparison with other plant-based drugs, the global market for illicit opiates is perhaps the most complex. In contrast to cannabis, illicit cultivation and production feeding the illicit opiate market are limited to certain countries and regions. Consequently, illicit opiates are necessarily trafficked across large distances and through multiple countries in order to meet demand. In contrast to coca bush, illicit cultivation of opium poppy occurs on a significant scale in at least three geographically distinct areas — South-West Asia, South-East Asia and Latin America.

In spite of the apparent complexity and the fluctuations in key supply indicators, a long-term perspective (taking 1991 as a starting point) reveals some elements of stability in the underlying fundamental indicators at a global level. As of the early 1990s, opium poppy was predominantly cultivated in South-East Asia; following a significant decline in that region, cultivation in Afghanistan increased significantly (reaching a record level in 2013), and cultivation returned to an increasing trend, as of 2007, in Myanmar. Global cultivation reached a low around 2005 and in 2013 returned for the first time to a level comparable to the high level of 1991 (even exceeding it by a small margin). However, owing to the typically higher yields in South-West Asia (disregarding transitory year-on-year fluctuations attributable to environmental factors), the overall trend over the period 1991-2013 was one of increasing production of opium poppy, even if the sharp increase in Afghanistan in 2013 is excluded.

The Balkan and Northern routes are the main heroin trafficking corridors linking Afghanistan to the huge markets of the Russian Federation (US$13 billion) and Western Europe (US$20 billion) – data from 2010. Most of the profits go to the organized crime groups along the route, but some goes to fund insurgents in Afghanistan.

However, in 2013 the number users of opiates in Western and Central Europe may have declined by almost one third between 2003 and 2012 (from 1.6 million to 1.13 million). This is also observed for example, in the data from Germany, where the number of people arrested for the first time for heroin use fell steadily between 2003 and 2012 — overall, by more than one half. Even so, in 2011 and 2012, there may have been a certain deficiency in the available supply of heroin (which may yet be corrected), as the purity-adjusted price of heroin underwent a distinct transition between 2010 and 2011, and maintained the increased level in 2012. Indeed, the decline in heroin flowing on the Balkan Route appears to have been too sudden to be accompanied by a correspondin drop in demand. The ensuing shortfall may have helped trigger the development of routes serving as alternatives to the Balkan route — whose emergence is sug- gested by other evidence — to supply Europe, possibly via the Near and Middle East and Africa, as well as directly from Pakistan, suggesting that the so called Southern Route is expanding.

Afghanistan to the Russian Federation

After the fall of the Soviet Union, the use of heroin appears to have rapidly grown in the Russian Federation, but began to stabilize around 2001. Today, there are an estimated 1.5 million heroin users (data from 2010) in the Russian Federation, making it the single largest national heroin consumer in the world. To get to Russian markets from Afghanistan, land transport appears to be the most popular route. Twenty years ago, all the countries north of Afghanistan were part of the USSR, so cross-border linkages are common. These new states are mostly poor and some have had problems with political insurgencies. Underresourced and struggling to find their feet, stopping trans-shipment of heroin was not an early priority. Today, efforts are being made, and several tons of heroin are seized each year, but some 70 tons manage to make their way through to satisfy demand in the Russian Federation. To get 70 tons to the Russian consumers, about ¼ (96 tons) of all Afghan heroin exports, must pass from Afghanistan into Central Asia, with Tajikistan handling most of this volume – data from 2010. Both large, well-organized groups and small entrepreneurs appear to be engaged in trafficking, with the drug typically changing hands multiple times before reaching the consumers. Cross-border familial and ethnic linkages appear to be important in facilitating the flow.

These 70 tons are sold for US$13 billion in Russian markets, and this flow appears to have been increasing since 1999.

Afghanistan to Europe

The long-established Balkan route seems to remain a corridor for the transit of Afghan heroin to the lucrative markets in Western and Central Europe, but its importance has declined due to various factors such as more effective law enforcement and a shrinking market in Western and Central Europe, as seen by the decline in opiate use and seizures in the subregion and the reduced level of supply compared with the peak levels of 2007.

The “Balkan route” proceeds by land from the Islamic Republic of Iran (or Pakistan into the Islamic Republic of Iran) via Turkey and through South-East Europe. To satisfy European demand for 87 tons of heroin, about 140 tons (data from 2010) must depart Afghanistan along this route, largely due to high levels of seizures in the Islamic Republic of Iran and Turkey. Most of this heroin is consumed in just four countries: the United Kingdom, Italy, France and Germany.

Organized crime groups involved in international trafficking on the Balkan route are often composed of nationals from the source or transit countries. But, at various stages, many of the traffickers may be transportation professionals contracted to do the job, not necessarily members of the group that owns the drugs. Opiates destined for Western Europe are trafficked out of Afghanistan by Baluchi and Pashtun networks operating in the border regions of Afghanistan, Pakistan and the Islamic Republic of Iran. Baluchi groups are believed to offload their shipments in the Islamic Republic of Iran to groups with greater regional and international ties, such as Azeri, Arab, Persian and Kurdish groups. Once opiates have changed hands, these groups are then mainly responsible for shipping the drugs from the eastern to the western borders of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Once in Turkey, large shipments are broken down into smaller parcels for distribution in Europe.

In the Balkans, relatively little heroin is seized, suggesting the route is exceedingly well organized and lubricated with corruption. Balkan groups are important through the Balkans, but do not appear to control the drugs in destination markets. In most European countries, nationals control the local drug markets. The Netherlands acts as another redistribution center, after Turkey.