Firearms trafficking

Firearms trafficking

The illicit trafficking and misuse of firearms is intrinsically linked to criminal organizations and networks: as facilitators of violent crimes, as tools to perpetrate power, and as lucrative trafficking commodities, that fuels armed conflicts, crime and insecurity. Oftentimes, different forms of criminality are intertwined, such as human, firearms and drugs trafficking.

No region in the world is exempt from the dramatic consequences of firearms violence. While the death toll in the context of armed conflicts is well known, less evident but even more dramatic, is the fact that more lives are lost worldwide from non-conflict firearm events, than do during ongoing wars.  The problems associated with firearms violence covers the whole spectrum of human security: ranging from high levels of individual physical insecurity (domestic violence and street, gang and criminal violence) with  serious economic and social consequences for the society at large, to large scale armed conflicts in which these arms enable widespread violence and account for the majority of deaths.

The modern pistol or assault rifle represents a “mature technology”, so current weapons holders do not need to regularly update their stock to remain competitive. The number of new small arms purchased each year is only about 1% of that already in circulation, and this likely applies to both licit and illicit markets.

There are two primary markets for illicit arms - those who need weapons for criminal purposes, and those who need them for political ones. The movement of firearms from the United States to Mexico represents an example of the first, while the outflow of guns from Eastern Europe serves as an example of the second. Different types of arms and techniques are implicated in each case.

With massive stocks of arms from the Soviet era, some countries in Eastern Europe remain vulnerable to trafficking, though control efforts and the global decline in civil conflicts have been reducing the risks.

From the United States to Mexico

The United States of America is an obvious source of weapons for criminals in Mexico. The United States has the most heavily armed civilian population in the world, with about one quarter of all adults having at least one firearm. The gun trade in the United States is subject to competitive pressures, so weapons are also inexpensive in comparison to countries where firearms sales are highly regulated, such as Mexico. It appears that most of the firearms trafficked into Mexico are purchased from one of the 6,700 gun dealers along the border with Mexico using “straw purchasers” and driven across the border by a large number of cross-border smugglers. Very small batches of weapons are moved across at the regular crossing points, concealed in private vehicles. About 88 million passenger cars cross the border each year, and most of those crossing the border do so every day; a single smuggler following this ebb and flow can transport more than 500 weapons per year in loads too small to be suspected as organized trafficking. In the end, the cross-border trade in arms is best seen as a market, rather than a group-driven activity. Mexico already has a lot of illicit arms, however: an estimated 10 million unregistered weapons, or enough to arm one in three of the adult males in the country. In this context, trafficking serves mainly to top up the market. Based on what is known about the size of the groups that provide the bulk of demand – the drug cartels – an estimated 20,000 weapons are trafficked each year, worth at most US$20 million – data from 2010.

From Eastern Europe to the world

The dissolution of the former Soviet Union left many of the new countries, particularly on strategic borders, with an unwanted legacy: large stockpiles of aging, but still functional, arms and ammunition. Ukraine is a case in point. After dissolution, Ukraine essentially inherited 30% of the Soviet military-industrial complex. The country currently holds an estimated 7 million small arms – data from 2010. In absolute terms, this is the third largest stockpile in the world, after China and the Russian Federation, but Ukraine emerges as the country with the most spare firearms per active duty soldier. This large stockpile presents a risk as shown by numerous reports of attempted or completed transfers to states subject to sanctions or involved in regional conflicts, particularly in Africa. Additionally, this arms are using in the present conflict in Ukraine.

To arm a revolution or embargoed military, a large number of weapons is required. It is generally difficult to steal and clandestinely traffic sufficient quantities to make the venture worthwhile, so most military arms “trafficking” takes place under a veneer of legality. Like other commodities where the legality of a shipment is entirely dependent on paperwork, most large-scale arms trafficking hinges on corruption. Most transactions involve a combination of officials and international arms brokers.

These brokers sell their connections, their access to fraudulent paperwork, and their transportation services to both insurgent groups and embargoed states. They operate chains of shell companies and often own small fleets of surplus planes and other vehicles. Because warring parties may lack an international currency, brokers may take payment in the form of natural resource concessions, making money on both the sale of the arms and the sale of exported commodities. As a result, they may have a background in dealing in natural resources. In terms of valuation, arms trafficking to political combatants is episodic, and so it is difficult to speak of a consistent flow. During a crisis, demand may be high, only to subside as peace is restored.